Greenland and Denmark: Arctic Secessionism in a Global Powerplay

Abstract

Greenland, the biggest island in the world inhabited predominantly by Inuits, was a Danish colony before 1953 and has since then been a part of the Danish realm with a gradually increasing autonomy. Some 2/3 of its population favor a complete secession, but the heavy dependence upon Danish budget subsidies is the main challenge. The Chinese government and companies have since 2005 maintained a close dialogue with Greenland as an entry point to the Arctic and a rich base of natural resources (including rare earth elements), though there has not been major investments yet. The U.S. have lately tried to halt this cooperation for the reasons of foreign, security and resource policy, and to put Greenland under a tighter American control. President Trump’s purchase offer in 2019 was the most publicized initiative. Denmark, despite its close alliance with the United States, is worried by either American or Chinese involvement and tries to become a good patron for Greenland to prevent its secession. Meanwhile, the Greenlandic authorities confirm their political will to struggle for a complete independence from Denmark. The article suggests three medium-term scenarios, with Greenland remaining in an gradually looser union with Denmark, moving into the U.S. domain and acquiring a full statehood with a subsequent competition of great powers. Whatever the outcome, Russia shall monitor the development closely and play an active role in the Arctic, not taking a part in the US-China rivalry.