Delayed recovery and the spacing of major extinctions

Abstract

Approximate periodicity for peak rates of global extinction during the past 250 m.y. may have resulted from delayed recovery following major extinction events. Two components can be envisioned for such delays: persistence of inimical environmental conditions for some time after the onset of the crisis, and slow restoration of vulnerable taxa. This general hypothesis is consistent with statistical evidence of linkage between measured rates of extinction of marine invertebrate genera for contiguous stages and substages of the geologic column. The nine broad valleys between the “periodic” peak rates for the past 250 m.y. exhibit only three trivial secondary peaks, indicating that, if the pattern is not artifactual, trends in global rates of extinction have not readily been abruptly reversed. Moreover, the smooth observed trends reflect the fact that regional crises tend to remove many species but few genera. To some degree, high rates of extinction that precede peak rates must represent bias of the incomplete fossil record (the Signor-Lipps effect). High rates that immediately follow peak rates also may, to a degree, reflect biological legacy: (1) final extinction of weakened genera or (2) extinction of new genera that contain few species or represent failed evolutionary “experiments.” Nonetheless, there is evidence that protracted intervals of stressful environmental conditions contributed to high rates of extinction preceding or following certain peak intervals, including the Scythian, Cenomanian, Early Paleocene, and Early Oligocene. The reef-building rudists, for example, suffered heavy extinction during both Cenomanian and Turonian time and then failed to recover quickly.The late Neogene record of bivalve molluscs in the Western Atlantic offers a more detailed picture of delayed recovery. Here early intervals of glacial expansion caused heavy extinction, leaving an impoverished, eurythermal fauna that was virtually unaffected by late Pleistocene glacial episodes. The episode of heavy extinction in Late Eocene time exhibits a similar phenomenon on a worldwide scale. Among the planktonic foraminifera, warm-adapted stenothermal species died out, and eurythermal forms predominated throughout Oligocene time; restoration of vulnerable, stenothermal species proceeded gradually during the Miocene Epoch. This example of delayed recovery and others like it following earlier global crises may have prevented such crises from following one another in rapid succession, yielding an appearance of periodicity.