Rates of warming and the global sensitivity of shallow water marine invertebrates to elevated temperature

Abstract

Assessing the sensitivity of ectotherms to variability in their environment is a key challenge, especially in the face of rapid warming of the Earth's surface. Comparing the upper temperature limits of species from different regions, at different rates of warming, has recently been developed as a method to estimate the long term sensitivity of shallow marine fauna. This paper presents the first preliminary data from four tropical Ascension Island, five temperate New Zealand and six Antarctic McMurdo Sound species. The slopes and intercepts of these three assemblages fitted within the overall pattern for previously measured assemblages from high temperature tolerance in tropical fauna and a shallow slope, to low temperature tolerance and a steep slope in Antarctic fauna. Despite the tropical oceanic Ascension Island being subject to upwelling events, the fit of the intercept and slope within the overall assemblage pattern suggests that the upwelling is sufficiently predictable for the fauna to have evolved the plasticity to respond. This contrasts with previously analysed species from the Peruvian upwelling region, which had a steeper slope than other temperate fauna. The speed and capacity of faunal assemblages to acclimatize their physiology is likely to determine the shape of the rates of warming relationship, and will be a key mechanism underpinning vulnerability to climate warming.