OLIVE YIELDS FORECASTS AND OIL PRICE TRENDS IN MEDITERRANEAN AREAS: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE LAST TWO DECADES

Abstract

SUMMARYThe main objective of this research was to utilize pollen monitoring methodology to predict olive yields in three Mediterranean olive cultivation areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia) and their relationships with the olive oil price dynamics. Moreover, olive yield and olive oil production compared with olive oil price trends in the last two decades was evaluated. The statistical analyses confirmed that biological parameters such as the pollen emission, the pollen season start (Pss), the full flowering (Ff) date or the pollen season length (Psl) showed positive correlation values with productive parameters, especially the Pollen Index (Pi). However, the difficulty to define clear relationships with oil price for optimizing the marketing strategies can be due to the olive sector European policy and to the complex international olive oil market situation. The occurrence of unharvested trees was increased and the reduction in agricultural operations as well as non-harvesting could become more widespread above all in traditional extensive systems.