Predictions for Cairo: A Reaffirmation, A Reversal, A Realignment, and A Refusal

Abstract

This paper analyses the preparatory process for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), to see what it might suggest about the direction that the population debate has taken since the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest and its successor conference held at Mexico City in 1984. Given the insights obtained from the ICPD preparatory process, and the legacy of the preceding two UN population conferences, what can we say about the directions that the evolving population agenda may take at Cairo?In an attempt to answer this question we make four predictions: (i) the linkage between population and development will be reaffirmed; (ii) United States' ‘Mexico City Policy’ will be formally reversed as the US will seek to recapture the leadership role in the field that it conceded in 1984; (iii) women's health issues will take centre-stage as a new focus in the ongoing debate on the larger ‘population question’ as the agenda is again realigned; and (iv) nations will once again refuse attempts by the population establishment to adopt quantitative population targets.