A structured expert judgement elicitation approach: how can it inform sound intervention decision-making to support household food security?

Abstract

Abstract Objective: To examine structured expert judgement (SEJ) elicitation as a method to provide robust, defensible data for three determinants of household food security (food cost, household disposable income and physical access) for quantifying a proof-of-concept integrating decision support system for food security. Design: SEJ elicitation is a validated method for obtaining unavailable data, but its use in household food security in high-income countries is novel. Investigate Discuss Estimate Aggregate (IDEA) elicitation protocol was implemented, including quantitative and qualitative elements. Using specific questions related to three determinants, food security experts were encouraged to Investigate – estimate individual first-round responses to these questions, Discuss – with each other evidence on the reasoning and logic of their estimates, Estimate – second-round responses, following which these judgements were combined using mathematical Aggregation. Setting: Victoria, Australia. Participants: Five experts with a range of expertise in the area of household food insecurity participated in the SEJ elicitation process. Results: The experts’ ability to provide reliable estimates was tested and informed the aggregation of the collection of individual estimates into a single quantity of interest for use in decision support. The results of the quantitative elicitation show the impact of combinations of varying household income, food cost and physical access on household food security status and severity and is supported by the experts reasoning during elicitation. Conclusion This research provides insight to the application of SEJ where elicited data can inform and support intervention decision-making specific to household food security, especially where evidence is absent or of poor quality.