Demography of Cycas micronesica on Guam following introduction of the armoured scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui

Abstract

Abstract:Following the 2003 invasion of the armoured scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui to Guam, changes to population traits of the dominant Cycas micronesica were determined. Belt transects with a width of 4 m and an average length of 120 m were established in October 2004 to document plant mortality until January 2011. Stem height, basal diameter and leaf number were also measured for each plant and used to determine density, demography and allometric relationships. Allometric traits and a left-skewed demographic structure of the pre-invasion C. micronesica habitat documented a thriving population with high recruitment potential. Aulacaspis yasumatsui dispersed into the study site 4 mo after the initial census. All seedlings were killed within 9 mo and all juvenile plants were killed within 40 ± 10 mo. Mortality reached 92% by 6 y after chronic scale infestations. Allometry and demography of the 2011 survivors described a collapsing C. micronesica population of stressed and reproductively challenged trees with no recruitment. This classic example of the enemy release hypothesis has resulted in a homogeneous decline in plant density from 2007–2011. The trend predicts extirpation of C. micronesica from west Guam habitats by 2019.