Historical Impacts of Precipitation and Temperature on Farm Production in Kansas

Abstract

We quantify weather effects on output and incomes for a panel of Kansas farmers. The effects of weather are largely asymmetric with negative temperature and precipitation values affecting output and income differently than above average observations. Precipitation effects depend on timing and seasonal averages. The number of days exceeding 32.2°C (i.e., the “hot” years) negatively impacts production and income measures, although the impact is positive for crop output in the cooler years. The results indicate the importance of including weather in predicting output and income and designing risk management instruments to mitigate weather trends and variability.