Estimating survival rates in MERS-CoV patients 14 and 45 days after experiencing symptoms and determining the differences in survival rates by demographic data, disease characteristics and regions: a worldwide study

Abstract

AbstractAlthough Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has a recorded 5 years of circulation in 27 countries worldwide, there is no international study to assess whether there is variation in mortality by region. Neither has there been a comprehensive study detailing how the disease characteristics of MERS-CoV influence mortality in patients presenting symptoms. This study aimed to assess how region, patient and disease characteristics influence 14- and 45-day mortality in MERS patients. The author utilised publically available data on MERS-CoV. The study included 883 MERS patients reported between 5 January 2015 and 10 March 2017. Data on patient and disease characteristics were collected. The mean age at MERS-CoV diagnosis was 54.3 years: 69.1% were male, and 86.7% of the cases were reported from Saudi Arabia. About 40% of MERS patients studied were over the age of 60. The study estimated 14- and 45-day survival rates after initial onset of symptoms: 83.67% and 65.9%, respectively. Saudi Arabian MERS patients exhibited 4.1 and 5.0 times higher 14-day (adjusted hazard risk (aHR) = 4.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012–16.921) and 45-day (aHR = 5.0; 95% CI 1.856–13.581) mortality risk compared with MERS patients in the Republic of Korea or other countries. Similarly, Middle Eastern MERS patients showed 5.3 and 4.1 times higher 14-day (aHR = 5.3; 95% CI 1.070–25.902) and 45-day (aHR = 4.1; 95% CI 1.288–113.076) mortality risk compared with MERS patients in the Republic of Korea or other countries. The results demonstrated a link between mortality and geography, disease and patient factors such as regions, symptoms, source of infections, underlying medical conditions, modes of transmission, non-healthcare workers and those of older age. Educational programmes, access to healthcare and early diagnosis could be implemented as modifiable factors to reduce the higher mortality rates in MERS patients.