SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF LOW FERTILITY IN BRAZIL

Abstract

SummaryAn increasing number of developing countries are experiencing below replacement fertility rates. Although the factors associated with low fertility in developed countries have been widely explored in the literature, studies of low fertility in middle- and low-income countries continue to be rare. To help fill this gap, Brazil was used as a case study to assess whether human development, gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work are associated with the likelihood of married or cohabiting women to have a child. For this purpose, multilevel logistic regressions were estimated using the 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. It was found that human development was negatively associated with fertility in the three periods analysed. Gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work were positively associated with the odds of having higher order births in Brazil in 2000 and 2010. In 1991, these variables were not associated with higher order births, and gender equality was negatively associated with first births. The positive association found in 2000 and 2010 may constitute a reversal of the relationship that in all likelihood prevailed earlier in the demographic transition when gender equality was most likely negatively correlated with fertility levels.