Method for prediction of ship traffic behaviour and encounter frequency

Abstract

Abstract The design of new rules on seaways, such as traffic restrictions, requires determining the degree of improvement in marine traffic safety beforehand by considering the occurrence of new hazardous factors. This study proposes a method to predict the future traffic behaviour and ship encounter frequency (EF) with the introduction of a new traffic rule. First, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the factors affecting the EF. A method of predicting future traffic behaviour and EF is presented based on the analysis of changes in the traffic flow in an area with a temporal restriction. Results show that the method appropriately predicts the location and degree of the occurrence of encounters in the sea area. The proposed method contributes to the discussion of future traffic safety, when sailing in a specific area is restricted by new regulations, installations of new offshore wind farms and fishing reefs.