Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule

Abstract

The Right Whale Sighting Advisory System (RWSAS) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries program designed to reduce collisions between vessels and critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. The vessel speed restriction that is part of the RWSAS presents navigation stakeholders with numerous challenges, owing to concerns about increased risks of ship grounding and collisions within ports. In this paper, we present a multi-methodology framework for assessing the impact of the vessel speed restriction on navigational safety. Empirically, we base our discussion in a first-order analysis of ship grounding risk for the Charleston Entrance Channel. Our analysis proceeds in three parts. We begin by using fault and event tree analyses to assess a relevant set of grounding-related event progression and failure probabilities. The influence of alternative vessel speed restrictions on ship grounding risk are then explored via a Bayesian network model that utilises the previously specified fault and event tree models for its partial specification and enumeration. Our analysis suggests that the speed restriction can, under certain reasonable assumptions, be seen to adversely impact the risk of ship grounding accidents in the Charleston Entrance Channel. We conclude with a summary of our findings and recommendations for future research.