The effect of intermittency in wave forcing on the quasi-biennial oscillation

Abstract

The Holton–Lindzen–Plumb (HLP) model of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated in order to assess the impact of introducing intermittency in the wave forcing. Intermittency is introduced to HLP by allowing the amplitude of the waves which force the QBO to evolve according to a stationary random process, driven by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with an associated time scale $\tau$ . Provided that $\tau$ is much shorter than the QBO period, it is shown that the impact on the QBO of the intermittent forcing is captured by a single intermittency parameter $\lambda$ , and the value of $\lambda$ is proportional to $\tau$ and otherwise depends upon the details of the SDE. Numerical simulations, using a family of mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes as the choice of SDE, show that the effect of increasing the intermittency parameter is invariably to decrease the QBO amplitude and increase its period. Changes to the QBO amplitude and period are indeed found to collapse onto a single curve controlled by $\lambda$ , as predicted by the theory, provided that $\tau$ is small enough for the approximations used to be valid. The extension to broadband forcing is discussed in the context of stochastic gravity wave parameterisation, with the eventual goal of developing a representation of source intermittency in the most general situation with close fidelity to the physics.