Opioid use as a potential risk factor for pancreatic cancer in the United States: An analysis of state and national level databases

Abstract

Pancreatic cancer (PC) rate is increasing in the U.S. The use of prescription and illicit opioids has continued to rise nationally in recent years as well. Opioids have been shown to have a deleterious effect on multiple types of cancer with recent data suggesting opium use as a risk factor for PC. Using national databases, we tested whether opioid usage pattern over time could explain the state and national-based variations in PC rates in the U.S. Opioid death rate (as a surrogate for prescription and illicit opioid use) was extracted from the CDCs Wonder online data through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Incidence of pancreatic cancer was retrieved from the online CDCs data base gathered from the U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group. Prevalence of obesity, tobacco and alcohol use was collected from Behavioral risk factor surveillance system. Mixed-effects regression models were used to test the association between levels of PC rate and opioid death/use rates during the years 1999–2016. A rise in PC was seen over time at the national and state levels. Similarly, the opioid death rates increased over time. Among other potential PC risk factors, only obesity prevalence showed an increase during the study period. A state’s opioid death rate at 4 years prior significantly predicted initial incidence of PC (β = 0.1848, p<0.0001) and had a significant effect on the estimated annual change in the rate of PC (β = -.0193,p<0.0001). Opioid use may be an un-identified risk factor contributing to the increasing incidence of PC in the U.S. These novel findings need to be verified by population-based studies.