Exponential adoption of battery electric cars

Abstract

The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by road transport. However, there is wide disagreement as to how soon battery electric vehicles will play a major role in overall transportation. Focusing on battery electric passenger cars, we analyze BEV adoption across 17 individual countries, Europe, and the World, and consistently find exponential growth trends. Modeling-based estimates of future adoption given past trends suggest system-wide adoption substantially faster than typical economic analyses have proposed so far. For instance, we estimate the majority of passenger cars in Europe to be electric by about 2031. Within regions, the predicted times of mass adoption are largely insensitive to model details. Despite significant differences in current electric fleet sizes across regions, their growth rates consistently indicate fast doubling times of approximately 15 months, hinting at radical economic and infrastructural consequences in the near future.