Greater nurse density correlates to higher level of population ageing globally, but is more prominent in developed countries

Abstract

Background Representing over 50% of the healthcare workforce, nurses provide care to people at all ages. This study advances, at a population level, that high levels of nursing services, measured by nurse density may significantly promote population ageing measured by the percentage of a population over 65 years of age (65yo%). Methods Population level data was examined to explore the correlation between nurse density and 65yo%. The confounding impacts on ageing such as the effects of economic affluence, physician density, fertility rate, obesity and urban advantages were also considered. Scatter plots, bivariate correlation, partial correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were performed for examining the correlations. Results Nurse density correlated to 65yo%; this relationship was independent of other influences such as fertility rate, economic affluence, obesity prevalence, physician density and urban advantages. Second to fertility rate, nursing density had the greatest influence on 65yo%. The predicting and confounding variables explain 74.4% of the total 65yo% variance. The universal correlations identified in country groupings suggest that low nurse density may be a significant global concern. Conclusions While nurse density might contribute significantly to 65yo% globally, the effect was more prominent in developed countries. Ironically, countries with higher nurse densities and therefore greater levels of 65yo%, were countries with an increased need for more nursing staff. To highlight the profound implications for the role the nursing profession plays especially at a time of global nursing shortage, further study into the effects of long-run elasticity of nurse staffing level on population ageing may be needed. For instance, what percentage of nursing staff increase would be required to meet every 1% increase of an ageing population.