Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
Author:
Lee Ronald1, Mason Andrew23, Lee Ronald, Mason Andrew, Amporfu Eugenia, An Chong-Bum, Bixby Luis Rosero, Bravo Jorge, Bucheli Marisa, Chen Qiulin, Comelatto Pablo, Coy Deidra, d’Albis Hippolyte, Donehower Gretchen, Dramani Latif, Fürnkranz-Prskawetz Alexia, Gal Robert I., Holz Mauricio, Huong Nguyen Thi Lan, Kluge Fanny, Ladusingh Laishram, Lee Sang-Hyop, Lindh Thomas, Ling Li, Long Giang Thanh, Maliki , Matsukura Rikiya, McCarthy David, Mejía-Guevara Iván, Mergo Teferi, Miller Tim, Mwabu Germano, Narayana M. R., Nor Vanndy, Norte Gilberto Mariano, Ogawa Naohiro, Olaniyan Olanrewaju Ademola, Olivera Javier, Oosthuizen Morne, Phananiramai Mathana, Queiroz Bernardo Lanza, Racelis Rachel H., Rentería Elisenda, Rice James Mahmud, Sambt Joze, Seçkin Aylin, Sefton James, Soyibo Adedoyin, Tovar Jorge A., Tung An-Chi, Turra Cassio M., Urdinola B. Piedad, Vaittinen Risto, Vanne Reijo, Zannella Marina, Zhang Qi,
Affiliation:
1. Department of Demography and Department of Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. 2. Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96821, USA. 3. East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848-1601, USA.
Abstract
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Subject
Multidisciplinary
Reference33 articles.
1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision (United Nations New York 2013). 2. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Policies Database (United Nations New York 2013). 3. D. E. Bloom D. Canning J. Sevilla The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change (RAND Santa Monica CA 2002). 4. Samuelson, Population and Intergenerational Transfers 5. R. J. Willis in Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries R. D. Lee W. B. Arthur G. Rodgers Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press New York 1988) pp. 106–138.
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139 articles.
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