Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study

Abstract

Initial efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic have relied heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and mask-wearing. However, an effective vaccine is essential to containing the spread of the virus. We developed a compartmental model to examine different vaccine strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Our framework accounts for testing rates, test-turnaround times, and vaccination waning immunity. Using reported case data from the city of Toronto, Canada between Mar-Dec, 2020 we defined epidemic phases of infection using contact rates as well as the probability of transmission upon contact. We investigated the impact of vaccine distribution by comparing different permutations of waning immunity, vaccine coverage and efficacy throughout various stages of NPI’s relaxation in terms of cases and deaths. The basic reproduction number is also studied. We observed that widespread vaccine coverage substantially reduced the number of cases and deaths. Under phases with high transmission, an early or late reopening will result in new resurgence of the infection, even with the highest coverage. On the other hand, under phases with lower transmission, 60% of coverage is enough to prevent new infections. Our analysis of R0 showed that the basic reproduction number is reduced by decreasing the tests turnaround time and transmission in the household. While we found that household transmission can decrease following the introduction of a vaccine, public health efforts to reduce test turnaround times remain important for virus containment.