Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Author:

Bosse Nikos I.ORCID,Abbott Sam,Bracher JohannesORCID,Hain Habakuk,Quilty Billy J.ORCID,Jit MarkORCID,van Leeuwen EdwinORCID,Cori AnneORCID,Funk SebastianORCID,

Abstract

Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge about infectious disease dynamics with the subjective opinion of the researcher who develops and refines the model and often also adjusts model outputs. Developing a forecast model is difficult, resource- and time-consuming. It is therefore worth asking what modelling is able to add beyond the subjective opinion of the researcher alone. To investigate this, we analysed different real-time forecasts of cases of and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland over a 1-4 week horizon submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub. We compared crowd forecasts elicited from researchers and volunteers, against a) forecasts from two semi-mechanistic models based on common epidemiological assumptions and b) the ensemble of all other models submitted to the Forecast Hub. We found crowd forecasts, despite being overconfident, to outperform all other methods across all forecast horizons when forecasting cases (weighted interval score relative to the Hub ensemble 2 weeks ahead: 0.89). Forecasts based on computational models performed comparably better when predicting deaths (rel. WIS 1.26), suggesting that epidemiological modelling and human judgement can complement each other in important ways.

Funder

National Institute for Health Research

Wellcome Trust

Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Horizon 2020

Sergei Brin Foundation

USAID

Academy of Medical Sciences

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Subject

Computational Theory and Mathematics,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience,Genetics,Molecular Biology,Ecology,Modeling and Simulation,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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