Predicting the global potential distribution of two major vectors of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever under conditions of global climate change

Abstract

Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a tick-borne disease that is highly dangerous but often overlooked by the public. To prevent the spread of the disease, it is important to understand the distribution patterns of its vectors’ suitable areas. This study aims to explore the potential global suitability of areas for the vectors of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, including Dermacentor variabilis and Amblyomma cajennense under both historical and future climate scenarios. The study also seeks to investigate the impact of climatic factors on the distribution patterns of these vectors. Data on species distribution were downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Web of Science and PubMed database. The climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim Global Climate Database. The Maximum Entropy Model was used to evaluate the contribution of monthly precipitation, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, elevation, and nineteen other climatic variables to vector survival, as well as to predict the suitable area for the vectors. We found that D. variabilis is distributed in North America, while A. cajennense is mainly distributed in South America, but all other continents except Antarctica have a suitable distribution. D. variabilis is more likely to survive in temperate regions, and A. cajennense is more likely to survive in tropical zones. D. variabilis is more sensitive to temperature, whereas A. cajennense is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation, and A. cajennense prefers tropical regions with hot and humid characteristics. The high suitable areas of both vectors were almost expanded in the ssp5-8.5 scenario, but not so much in the ssp1-2.6 scenario. Highly suitable areas with vectors survival should be strengthened with additional testing to prevent related diseases from occurring, and other highly suitable areas should be alert for entry and exit monitoring to prevent invasion and colonization of vectors.