Spatial proliferation of African swine fever virus in South Korea

Abstract

The African swine fever virus (ASFV) was first detected in South Korea on a pig farm in September 2019. Despite active preventive measures to control the spread of ASFV, outbreaks on pig farms and in wild boar have been increasing. In this study, we investigated the spatial contamination area using the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, and growth rate using a logistic diffusion model. On the basis of the ASFV outbreak locations recorded from September 17th, 2019, to May 20th, 2022, the MCP area for the second week was 618.41 km2 and expanded to 37959.67 km2 in the final week. The maximum asymptote of the logistic function was considered as the land area of South Korea, and we estimated logistic growth rates of 0.022 km2 per week and 0.094 km2 per month. Administrative bodies should implement preventive and quarantine measures for infectious diseases. The results of this study will be a reference for epidemiologists, ecologists, and policy makers and contribute to the establishment of appropriate quarantine measures for disease control and management.