Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics

Abstract

Basic reproduction number (R0) is a mathematical expression used in epidemiology to address expected number of secondary cases. R0 helps to predict outbreak diffusion and preventive measures. As African swine fever (ASF) is a viral infectious disease, there are significant studies related to R0 of the ASF outbreak, but most of them are investigated in a zonal and geospecific boundary. This study explores the general overview of African swine fever virus (ASFV) R0 based on existing literature and examines for the global scale using a doubling time approach using wild boar outbreaks. Further, a qualitative mental model is developed to explore the ASF disease dynamics. It was found that the average R0 was 3.56 from existing literature. Based on the global scenario, ASFV spread in wild boar was above the threshold line ($R_0\ge 1$). The recent growth trend ($R_0=5.87$) flagging the very high risk. ASFV is threatening the world. The qualitative mental model highlighted the veterinary services as awareness and R&D support are highlighted as the control measures. This study provides a reference to researchers and veterinarians in setting strategies of developing preventive measures and highlights the importance of awareness programs and R&D support for mitigating the ASFV spread.