Short-term solar energy forecasting: Integrated computational intelligence of LSTMs and GRU

Abstract

Problems with erroneous forecasts of electricity production from solar farms create serious operational, technological, and financial challenges to both Solar farm owners and electricity companies. Accurate prediction results are necessary for efficient spinning reserve planning as well as regulating inertia and power supply during contingency events. In this work, the impact of several climatic conditions on solar electricity generation in Amherst. Furthermore, three machine learning models using Lasso Regression, ridge Regression, ElasticNet regression, and Support Vector Regression, as well as deep learning models for time series analysis include long short-term memory, bidirectional LSTM, and gated recurrent unit along with their variants for estimating solar energy generation for every five-minute interval on Amherst weather power station. These models were evaluated using mean absolute error root means square error, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. It was observed that horizontal solar irradiance and water saturation deficiency had a highly proportional relationship with Solar PV electricity generation. All proposed machine learning models turned out to perform well in predicting electricity generation from the analyzed solar farm. Bi-LSTM has performed the best among all models with 0.0135, 0.0315, 0.0012, and 0.1205 values of MAE, RMSE, MSE, and MAPE, respectively. Comparison with the existing methods endorses the use of our proposed RNN variants for higher efficiency, accuracy, and robustness. Multistep-ahead solar energy prediction is also carried out by exploiting hybrids of LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and GRU.