Dynamic evolution of schistosomiasis distribution under different control strategies: Results from surveillance covering 1991–2014 in Guichi, China

Abstract

Background Since the founding of the China, the Chinese government, depending on the changing epidemiological situations over time, adopted different strategies to continue the progress towards elimination of schistosomiasis in the country. Although the changing pattern of schistosomiasis distribution in both time and space is well known and has been confirmed by numerous studies, the problem of how these patterns evolve under different control strategies is far from being understood. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to investigate the spatio-temporal change of the distribution of schistosomiasis with special reference to how these patterns evolve under different control strategies. Methodology / Principal findings Parasitological data at the village level were obtained through access to repeated cross-sectional surveys carried out during 1991–2014 in Guichi, a rural district along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province, China. A hierarchical dynamic spatio-temporal model was used to evaluate the evolving pattern of schistosomiasis prevalence, which accounted for mechanism of dynamics of the disease. Descriptive analysis indicates that schistosomiasis prevalence displayed fluctuating high-risk foci during implementation of the chemotherapy-based strategy (1991–2005), while it took on a homogenous pattern of decreasing magnitude in the following period when the integrated strategy was implemented (2006–2014). The dynamic model analysis showed that regularly global propagation of the disease was not present after the effect of proximity to river was taken into account but local pattern transition existed. Maps of predicted prevalence shows that relatively high prevalence (>4%) occasionally occurred before 2006 and prevalence presents a homogenous and decreasing trend over the study area afterwards. Conclusions Proximity to river is still an important determinant for schistosomiasis infection regardless of different types of implemented prevention and control strategies. Between the transition from the chemotherapy-based strategy to the integrated one, we noticed a decreased prevalence. However, schistosomiasis would remain an endemic challenge in these study areas. Further prevention and control countermeasures are warranted.