The economic situation in Iraq. Is there a way out in the current crisis?

Abstract

At present, the Iraqi economy is once again undergoing trials associated with an increase in unemployment, a drop in the standard of living of the population, especially in central and southern Iraq, as well as the almost complete dependence of budgetary revenues on fluctuating oil prices. This dependence on oil has left other important sectors of the country’s economy, such as agriculture and industry, in near collapse. Of course, the real political crisis in Iraq 3 should be viewed through economic indicators, given the country’s lack of a diversified economy. The revenues received from the sale of oil are not invested in the development of the necessary sectors of the economy or in innovations, but are distributed according to articles of domestic expenditures, including the maintenance of a large bureaucratic apparatus. When there is a shortage of income, in the event of an unfavorable price policy in the market, the government resorts to domestic and foreign borrowing. These steps induce the state to completely stop rebuilding what was destroyed during previous wars or to start developing other sectors of the economy.Against the background of the entire political and economic situation, the country’s financial sector is also going through hard times. The main products and services of the banks are focused on payroll projects, and they are also engaged in currency speculation in the auctions arranged by the Central Bank of Iraq. It also negatively affects the investment attractiveness of the country, since the receipt of «easy and fast money» by a financial institution practically eliminates the need for it to invest in the real sector of the economy, the principle of which is the basis, including Islamic financial institutions.In general, the economic picture of Iraq can be described in the following formulations. The country has the fourth proven crude oil reserves in the world, was the second largest producer of OPEC and the fourth largest producer in the world. The country has international financial organizations that provide international financial support (IMF, World Bank), including bilateral loans. There are more negative aspects, including large and almost widespread corruption, direct dependence of government revenues on oil exports, almost complete absence of non'oil sectors in the structure of economic sectors (especially the private sector), and a weak and limited banking sector. Of course, there is some hope that the White Paper for Economic Reforms 4 presented by the government of Mustafa al'Kadhimi, which identifies the main necessary reforms to restore the Iraqi economy, could become a certain benchmark for turning the current economic situation and the beginning of the necessary reforms. But on the eve of the elections, the political forces considered it in their own interests to oppose any reforms. In this regard, Iraq actually lost the opportunity to carry out full'fledged reforms, however, in our opinion, there is still little hope for recovery.