Variability and trends of climate extremes indices from the observed and downscaled GCMs data over 1950–2020 period in Chattogram City, Bangladesh

Abstract

Abstract This study was intended to evaluate the variability and trends of climate extremes by incorporating daily data from Chattogram station and from the high-resolution Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for two different time series. Here, we also focused on evaluating the performance of the selected RCMs (CanESM2, CSIRO, and GFDL from CORDEX) using Taylor diagrams and heat map analysis. Twenty-two extreme climate indices from ETCCDI were computed for the 1950–1989 and 1990–2020 periods. Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope test were performed to estimate the trends from the indices from both station and RCMs data. Highly significant increasing trend for the warm days and warm nights’ frequencies were found, whereas the frequency of cold days and cold nights indicated a significantly decreasing trend. On the other hand, a mild increasing trend in 1-day and 5-day maximum rainfall was detected. Also, the average annual precipitation has increased by 6% from the 1950–1989 to 1990–2020 period. During the last three decades, the region has experienced heavier rainfall in the monsoon but increased water stress in the dry season. The two-fold effects of climate change on the local hydrology revealed by this study need to be addressed properly for the sustainable development of this region.