Spatio-temporal trends and variability in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Kashmir Valley, North Western Himalayas

Abstract

ABSTRACT Earth's average air temperature is warming at a substantial rate leading to an increase in the frequency and severity of extremes with major environmental and socio-economic impacts. The present study discusses temperature and precipitation extremes in Kashmir Valley using observational data from six meteorological stations. An Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) (http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/) provides 25 extreme climate indices (15 for temperature and 10 for precipitation) to be used. The absolute extreme temperature indices (TXx, TXn, TNx, and TNn) exhibit increasing tendencies, according to the findings. The number of changes witnessed in daily maximum temperature was greater than the daily minimum temperature which was manifested by increasing diurnal temperature range (DTR; 0.012 °C/year). These changes in extremes have impacts that pose a threat to agriculture, snow day and cover, glaciers, water resources, ecosystem services, etc. of the study region. The region is undergoing significant urban and land system changes making it further vulnerable to natural hazards. The findings are expected to further augment the hazard and risk analysis and the necessary disaster risk reduction measures for climate-related disasters in the region. These analyses will be helpful for the development of strategies for climate risk management in Kashmir.