Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management

Published:2018-02-23 Issue:1 Volume:2017 Page:27-35
ISSN:0273-1223
Container-title:Water Science and Technology
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Jasper-Tönnies Alrun¹,Hellmers Sandra²,Einfalt Thomas¹,Strehz Alexander¹,Fröhle Peter²

Affiliation:

1. hydro & meteo GmbH & Co. KG, Breite Str. 6-8, Lübeck D-23552, Germany

2. Institute of River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract

Abstract Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology.

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Subject

Water Science and Technology,Environmental Engineering

Link

http://iwaponline.com/wst/article-pdf/2017/1/27/216539/wst2017010027.pdf

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