Hydrological probabilistic forecasting based on deep learning and Bayesian optimization algorithm

Abstract

Abstract Obtaining accurate runoff prediction results and quantifying the uncertainty of the forecasting are critical to the planning and management of water resources. However, the strong randomness of runoff makes it difficult to predict. In this study, a hybrid model based on XGBoost (XGB) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) with Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) is proposed for runoff probabilistic forecasting. XGB is first used to obtain point prediction results, which can guarantee the accuracy of forecast. Then, GPR is constructed to obtain runoff probability prediction results. To make the model show better performance, the hyper-parameters of the model are optimized by BOA. Finally, the proposed hybrid model XGB-GPR-BOA is applied to four runoff prediction cases in the Yangtze River Basin, China and compared with eight state-of-the-art runoff prediction methods from three aspects: point prediction accuracy, interval prediction suitability and probability prediction comprehensive performance. The experimental results show that the proposed model can obtain high-precision point prediction, appropriate prediction interval and reliable probabilistic prediction results on the runoff prediction problems.