Statistical analysis of climate change over Hanumangarh district

Abstract

Abstract Precipitation is the most critical element of the hydrological cycle that might influence the frequency of floods or drought. Therefore, for drought and flood forecasting, knowing the precipitation pattern and its trend is mandatory. The research aims to estimate the monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend using statistical (Mann Kendall test & Sen's Slope estimator) and graphical (Innovative Trend Analysis method) for the Hanumangarh district of N-E Rajasthan. The mean monthly precipitation data were gathered from the India-WRIS from 1901 to 2022 (122 years). Seasonal and annual precipitation trend variations were examined by statistical methods and compared with the graphical method. The study results conclude that precipitation trends showed variability for the SW monsoon season from the graphical to the statistical method. For the SW monsoon season, the decreasing trend was seen using statistical methods. In contrast, the graphical method revealed an increasing trend. During the annual precipitation, increasing trends were seen using statistical and graphical methods. It is found that the ITA method is more efficient in finding trends because it does not assume any assumptions like that of the MK test. This study will help water resources engineers and local people with sustainable management, planning, and development of water resources in the Hanumangarh district.