Trend analysis of precipitation and drought characteristics over Churu district of northeast Rajasthan, India

Abstract

ABSTRACT Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters, becoming more extreme and less predictable due to climate change. Drought directly affects a region's water resources, leading to inadequate water availability and harming crops, animals, and humans. The objective of the present study is to assess the long-term trends of precipitation and drought characteristics for the Churu district of northeast Rajasthan, India. For this purpose, mean monthly precipitation data are collected through the India-WRIS from 1901 to 2022. The trend analysis uses statistical methods (M-K test & amp; SS estimator), and the results are compared with a graphical method (innovative trend analysis). Drought events are found using precipitation-based drought indices, i.e., standardized precipitation index, Z-score index, and percentage of normal precipitation index. Interestingly, the results of the statistical method are well matched with the results of the graphical method. The study concludes that during the annual precipitation a rising trend is observed, which can help to mitigate the severity of drought. Also, it is found that moderately dry droughts occur most frequently compared with other drought events. This study will help policy-makers and local administrators to take necessary action to mitigate the severity of drought.