Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a changing climate: a review

Abstract

AbstractIndian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one of the most well-documented areas of hydrometeorology; however, the processes associated with ISMR are not well understood. This attributes to the complexities associated with ISMR at multiple spatio-temporal scales. This further results in inconsistencies across the literature to assess the impacts of global warming on the monsoon, though this has huge relevance as a huge population of South Asia is dependent on the same. Here, we review and assess the existing literature on the Indian monsoon, its variability, and its trajectory in a warming scenario. We further synthesize the literature on its impacts on the hydrology of major river basins in South Asia. We also identify a few research questions, addressing which will add value to the understanding of the Indian monsoon and the associated water cycle. We have highlighted that there is a significant lack of understanding of how different large-scale and regional factors affect ISMR at different timescales. These impacts, in turn, get translated into hydrology and water sector in India. There is a need to know where we stand to combat the impacts of climate change on ISMR, which can be translated to adaptation by policy-making processes and water management practices in India.