Downscaling Future Precipitation over Mi Oya River Basin using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Studying future precipitation behaviour in river basins is essential for proper water resources and land-use planning within them, as this will help to reduce the risk and mitigate disasters that can occur in the future. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to study future precipitation fluctuations, which simulate large-scale climate variations under the effect of greenhouse gas changes. The GCM runs at a coarse spatial resolution which cannot be directly used for climate impact studies. Therefore, downscaling is required to extract the sub-grid and local scale information. This study examines the use of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network for climate downscaling to the Mi-Oya river basin in Sri Lanka using CNRM-CM5 and HadCM3 GCMs and observed annual data for 35 years. The precipitation data were extracted to cover Sri Lanka. Current downscaling models mostly use Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to downscale GCMs. Out of 42 GCMs, two appropriate GCMs were chosen using the data analysis tool Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS). The best predictor variables were chosen using the LASSO regression method. In this research, Machine Learning models were implemented using the Google TensorFlow platform. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, Pearson correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error performance indices were used to evaluate the performances of different downscaling models. Statistical downscaling was performed on the data at RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 using a LSTM. Subsequently, the changes that would take place by the year 2100 were analysed. The results show that precipitation will be reduced in the 2nd and 3rd decades of the 21st century, and precipitation will increase toward the 22nd century.