Seasonal rainfall variability in Korea within the context of different evolution patterns of the central Pacific El Niño

Abstract

This study aims to identify how different evolution patterns of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño influence seasonal rainfall and intense rainfall occurrence in Korea. The results suggest that changes in the CP El Niño can influence the spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal and heavy rainfall over East Asia. Specifically, for the Korean Peninsula, rainfall was typically lower during the years with the abrupt-decaying and prolonged-decaying CP El Niño evolution patterns. During the symmetric-decaying years, more rainfall occurred over the Korean Peninsula, and heavy rainfall events were concentrated in the central regions. Hence, flooding poses a risk to the Korean Peninsula and such risks may be heightened during symmetric-decaying CP El Niño years. Although this study relies on relatively short-term observation events and samples, the results provide a starting point for a more detailed examination of the large-scale and local factors for developing adaptive strategies to protect water resources and to plan for extreme weather events in a changing climate.