Temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 1960–2019, China

Abstract

Abstract The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is an important commercial grain production base in China. Understanding the temporal and spatial variations in precipitation can help prevent drought and flood disasters and ensure food security. Based on the precipitation data for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1960 to 2019, this study analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of total precipitation at different time scales using the Mann–Kendall test, the wavelet analysis, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the centre-of-gravity model. The results were as follows: (1) The winter precipitation showed a significant upward trend on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, while other seasonal trends were not significant. (2) The precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shows a zonal decreasing distribution from southeast to northwest. (3) The application of the EOF method revealed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation field. The cumulative variance contribution rate of the first two eigenvectors reached 51.5%, revealing two typical distribution fields, namely a ‘global pattern’ and a ‘north-south pattern’. The ‘global pattern’ is the decisive mode, indicating that precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is affected by large-scale weather systems. (4) The annual precipitation barycentres on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain were located in Jining city and Taian city, Shandong Province, and the spatial distribution pattern was north-south. The annual precipitation barycentres tended to move southwest, but the trend was not obvious. The annual precipitation barycentre is expected to continue to shift to the north in 2020.