Modeling the Evolution of Glyphosate Resistance in Barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in Cotton-Based Production Systems of the Midsouthern United States

Abstract

Glyphosate-resistant (GR) weeds have been a prime challenge to the sustainability of GR cotton-based production systems of the midsouthern United States. Barnyardgrass is known to be a high-risk species for evolving herbicide resistance, and a simulation model was developed for understanding the likelihood of glyphosate resistance evolution in this species in cotton-based systems. Under a worst-case scenario of five glyphosate applications in monoculture GR cotton, the model predicts resistance evolution in about 9 yr of continuous glyphosate use, with about 47% risk by year 15. A unique insight from this model is that management in response to GR Palmer amaranth in this system (a reactive response) provided a proactive means to greatly reduce the risks of glyphosate resistance evolution in barnyardgrass. Subsequent model analysis revealed that the risk of resistance is high in fields characterized by high barnyardgrass seedbank levels, seedling emergence, and seed production per square meter, whereas the risk is low in fields with high levels of postdispersal seed loss and annual seedbank loss. The initial frequency of resistance alleles was a high determinant of resistance evolution (e.g., 47% risk at year 15 at an initial frequency of 5e−8vs. 4% risk at 5e−10). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to understand the influence of various glyphosate use patterns and production practices in reducing the rate and risk of glyphosate resistance evolution in barnyardgrass. Early planting and interrow cultivation are useful tools. Crop rotation is effective, but the diversity of weed management options practiced in the rotational crop is more important. Diversifying weed management options is the key, yet application timing and the choice of management option is critical. Model analyses illustrate the relative effectiveness of a number of diversified glyphosate use strategies in preventing resistance evolution and preserving the long-term utility of glyphosate in midsouthern U.S. cotton-based production systems.