Macro-Regions in the Spatial Development Strategy of Russia: Verification of Borders by Promising Economic Specializations

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to verify the correspondence between the inclusion of regions in macroregions and the distribution of promising economic specializations by regions. The initial data are taken from the “Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2025”. The theoretical basis of the study was the concept of “economic convergence.” According to the initial hypothesis, the boundaries of macro-regions reflect the distribution of promising specializations by regions in the case of relative convergence of Russian regions into twelve clubs (macro-regions). To test the hypothesis, the idea of contrasting and blurry (fuzzy) boundaries of regions is formulated. A quantitative measure of the difference between the two regions by a combination of promising economic specializations is proposed. To confirm the club convergence hypothesis, it is necessary that the interregional boundaries along the perimeter of macro-regions be contrasted, and within the macro-regions – blurred. Calculations showed that most of the inter-regional borders are blurred, and contrasting borders are more common within macroregions than along their perimeter. Therefore, the initial hypothesis was recognized as erroneous and an alternative hypothesis was adopted when the union of regions into groups according to a combination of promising economic specializations does not correspond to the union of regions into macro-regions. The results can be used to adjust the spatial development strategy. It is proposed to take into account Russias transition to the digital economy and the introduction of artificial intelligence systems in determining promising specializations.