Machine Learning–Based Prediction of Hospitalization During Chemoradiotherapy With Daily Step Counts

Abstract

ImportanceToxic effects of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) can cause treatment interruptions and hospitalizations, reducing treatment efficacy and increasing health care costs. Physical activity monitoring may enable early identification of patients at high risk for hospitalization who may benefit from proactive intervention.ObjectiveTo develop and validate machine learning (ML) approaches based on daily step counts collected by wearable devices on prospective trials to predict hospitalizations during CRT.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study included patients with a variety of cancers enrolled from June 2015 to August 2018 on 3 prospective, single-institution trials of activity monitoring using wearable devices during CRT. Patients were followed up during and 1 month following CRT. Training and validation cohorts were generated temporally, stratifying for cancer diagnosis (70:30). Random forest, neural network, and elastic net–regularized logistic regression (EN) were trained to predict short-term hospitalization risk based on a combination of clinical characteristics and the preceding 2 weeks of activity data. To predict outcomes of activity data, models based only on activity-monitoring features and only on clinical features were trained and evaluated. Data analysis was completed from January 2022 to March 2023.Main Outcomes and MeasuresModel performance was evaluated in terms of the receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC AUC) in the stratified temporal validation cohort.ResultsStep counts from 214 patients (median [range] age, 61 [53-68] years; 113 [52.8%] male) were included. EN based on step counts and clinical features had high predictive ability (ROC AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.66-0.92), outperforming random forest (ROC AUC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.56-0.87; P = .02) and neural network (ROC AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71-0.88; P = .36). In an ablation study, the EN model based on only step counts demonstrated greater predictive ability than the EN model with step counts and clinical features (ROC AUC, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.70-0.93; P = .09). Both models outperformed the EN model trained on only clinical features (ROC AUC, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.31-0.66; P < .001).Conclusions and RelevanceThis study developed and validated a ML model based on activity-monitoring data collected during prospective clinical trials. Patient-generated health data have the potential to advance predictive ability of ML approaches. The resulting model from this study will be evaluated in an upcoming multi-institutional, cooperative group randomized trial.