Affiliation:
1. Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
2. Zaporizhzhyy National University
Abstract
Objective. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current trends of export-import operations between Ukraine and Poland and their specific changes during the full-scale invasion of Russia and in the conditions of military operations, to forecast the volume of export-import operations between the countries..
Methods. During the research, the following was applied: the dialectical method of learning processes and phenomena (to study the essence of export-import operations between Ukraine and Poland); graphic method (to display the dynamics and structure of export-import operations between Ukraine and Poland); index (to assess the rates of growth of the investigated indicators); the method of correlation analysis (to study the relationships between export and import operations between Ukraine and Poland), the method of one-factor and two-factor autoregression forecasting (to forecast sales volumes of manufactured products in general and depending on the size of production).
Results. As a result of the conducted research, it was found that with the beginning of the full-scale war with Russia, the volume of trade relations with Poland increased significantly. In 2022, Poland took the first place among the exporting countries from Ukraine and the second - in terms of the volume of imports to Ukraine, second only to China - despite the fact that, as a whole, imports to Ukraine (from all countries in general) almost halved. That is, the increase in trade between Ukraine and Poland during the full-scale invasion took place against the background of a very significant reduction in Ukraine's international trade as a whole.
In 2022 for the first time in the last 20 years, the volume of exports to Poland exceeded the volume of imports from Poland. This is due to the fact that during a full-scale war, the destruction of most airports and the blocking of sea trade routes, Poland turned into the main international hub for foreign trade with Ukraine.
One- and multi-factor autoregressive forecasting of export and import volumes between Ukraine and Poland was performed and the expected growth of exports from Ukraine to Poland in 2025 was calculated. up to 7-10 million dollars, and imports in the amount of 4.5-5 million dollars. The accuracy of the obtained autoregressive forecasts is 81.3%-83.5%.
Publisher
Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade named after Mykhailo Tugan-Baranovsky
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1. ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND IMPORT OPERATIONS DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE AND THE EU;Visnyk of Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade named after Mykhailo Tugan-Baranovsky;2024-06-30