Affiliation:
1. Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
Abstract
Objective. The objective of the article is to analyze the current trends in export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU and to determine their features during the large-scale invasion.
Methods. During the research, the following methods are applied: the dialectical method of learning processes and phenomena (for a qualitative study of the dynamics of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); graphical method (for graphical presentation of current dynamics and forecast values of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); index (to estimate the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU in the total volume of imports and exports of Ukraine, respectively); one-factor and three-factor autoregressive forecasting method (for forecasting the volume and share of export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU).
Results. Before the large-scale invasion, the EU was one of Ukraine's key foreign trade partners. As of 2021, the EU accounted for 50% of Ukrainian exports. In the case of imports, the share of the EU was 63% of all imports to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the share of exports from Ukraine to the EU has increased to 70%, underscoring the importance of the EU as a major trading partner that not only contributes to economic stability, but also provides important logistics routes for the export of Ukrainian goods to global markets.
Forecasting the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU shows that, despite the decrease in exports and imports due to the large-scale invasion, the share of exports to the EU in total exports of Ukraine will increase, while the share of imports from the EU will remain constant. This testifies to the stability and importance of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU in the difficult conditions of modern global challenges. The executed forecast is based on the assumption that the large-scale invasion will continue. If the situation changes and the period of post-war recovery comes, it will be necessary to build a new forecast that will reflect new prospects for economic growth and integration of Ukraine into the world economy.
Publisher
Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade named after Mykhailo Tugan-Baranovsky
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