Assessment of export potential and state of foreign food and agriculture trade in the world

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to assess the export potential of countries, to determine the directions of food export development and the place of Ukraine in it, taking into account socio-economic factors by applying the authors’ methodical approach. Methodology / approach. The article considers world food and agriculture exports, the export potential of countries is assessed taking into account socio-economic factors. The authors select and apply a combination of methods necessary to achieve the goal of the study, which characterize specificities of individual countries of the world: method of systematic generalization, dynamic series analysis, factor analysis, regression analysis, comparisons, rating evaluation, integral approach. Results. With the help of factor and integral analysis of macroeconomic indicators, we established that the structure of world exports and the share of food and agriculture is depended on the level of development and specialization of countries. In particular, the share of food and agriculture exports of developed countries is smaller compared to developing countries. The Netherlands and Germany are the leaders of the ranking in terms of food and agriculture export potential. According to forecasts, based on current trends, the export of bakery products in Ukraine and Poland should increase in 2023 compared to 2020 by 32.7 and 21.6 %, respectively. Effective socio-economic development, balanced export policy, modernization of production and logistics will contribute to the growth of export of food and agriculture with high added value. Originality / scientific novelty. Based on the authors’ methodical approach, the work improved the integral indicator of export development and the ranking of countries by export potential, taking into account socio-economic conditions. Factor models were built and the factors of food and agriculture export development were determined. Practical value / implications. The improved methodical approach to evaluating the effectiveness of global food and agriculture exports provides an opportunity to establish competitive advantages in the market and plan exports. Developing countries will have the opportunity to make the right choice of export products, which will provide them with added value and an increase in supply volumes.