Author:
Llanes Cárdenas Omar,Cervantes Arce Lorenzo,González González Gabriel Eduardo
Abstract
One of the climate problems that causes the most environmental impact worldwide is the trend of increasing occurrence of events of maximum extreme temperature, signaled by indicators such as hot extremes (HE) and maximum maximorum (highest maximum) temperature (MmT). These events can cause conditions ranging from severe droughts to heat stroke, which can cause death in any population. Indicators of maximum extreme temperature in one of the most important agricultural areas in northwestern Mexico were calculated based on significant trends (ST) and adjusted return periods. To calculate the trends of the maximum extreme temperature, frequency (FR), annual average duration (AAD), annual daily duration (ADD), intensity (IN) of HE, and MmT, the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to data obtained for 19 weather stations from the CLImate COMputing database for the period 1982–2014. Adjusted return periods (ARP) were calculated for each indicator of maximum extreme temperature by fitting a probability distribution function. For the study area, the ST and maximum extreme temperature shows a prevailing cooling trend. This can be deduced by observing the proportion of negative ST compared with positive ST. The highest positive magnitudes of ST were recorded at stations CUL (FR = 3.44 HE dec-1), GUT (AAD = 6.15 day HE-1 dec-1 and IN = 13.62 °C dec-1), IXP (ADD = 35.00 day dec-1) and POT (MmT = 2.50 °C day-1 dec-1). For ARP, the estimate of the average occurrence frequency of extreme events per100 years are FR = 6.11 HE dec-1 (1 time), AAD = 6.64 day HE-1 dec-1 (4 times), ADD = 38.68 day dec-1 (1 time), IN = 39.09 °C dec-1 (6 times) and MmT = 41.95 °C day-1 dec-1 (1 time). These findings are of key importance for the economic sectors related to agricultural production in the state known, at least to date, as “the breadbasket of Mexico” (Sinaloa). The results will help to develop adaptation/prevention measures before the coming socioeconomic and hydrological disasters.
Publisher
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference67 articles.
1. Aguilera, N. M. A. (2007). Estimación de funciones de distribución de probabilidad, para caudales máximos, en la región del Maule. Memoria de la Universidad de Talca.
2. Alghamdi, A. S., & Harrington, J. J. (2019). Trends and spatial pattern recognition of warm season hot temperatures in Saudi Arabia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138, 793–807. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02860-6
3. Alves, M., Nadeau, D. F., Music, B., Anctil, F., & Fatichi, S. (2021). Can we replace observed forcing with weather generator in land surface modeling? Insights from long-term simulations at two contrasting boreal sites. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145, 215–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03615-y
4. Ariza, R. A. M. (2013). Métodos utilizados para el pronóstico de demanda de energía eléctrica en sistemas de distribución. [Tesis de Licenciatura, Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira], 145p.
5. Austin, C. P., & van Buuren, S. (2022). The effect of high prevalence of missing data on estimation of the coefficients of a logistic regression model when using multiple imputation. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 22, 196. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01671-0