Forecasting husbandry development using time series

Abstract

Building time series models based on historical data is a pressing challenge in the agricultural sector. This is essential, as analysing and predicting processes related to the food security of the state, region, and business entities are of paramount importance in management. With the help of forecasts, enterprises can adjust their production activities in such a way as to satisfy demand and deliver products to consumers on time. The research aims to predict the trends in the growth of cattle and cow populations and identify the most suitable forecasting timeframe. Statistical methods related to autoregression are used for this type of analysis: autoregressive models, moving average models or a combination of both, integrated variable structure models, and models that include seasonal effects and exogenous factors with an autoregressive and moving average component in the model. Monthly statistical data on the number of cattle and cows are used, among them mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values, asymmetry, and kurtosis. The dynamics of the decrease in the number of cattle and cows are shown. The studied series were checked for stationarity. The time series data for the cattle population underwent a Box-Cox transformation. The optimal parameters of the models used are given. Predictive values for periods (months) were obtained and the change in the number of cattle over the last 15 years was analysed. Constructed time series are compared with the actual values, which are illustrated in the graphs. Estimates of rootmean-square deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for different forecasting terms are given. By comparing these estimates for different time intervals, the optimal period for the forecast (24 months) was determined. This study allows farms and enterprises in the industry to predict a possible number of products (milk, meat) that could be collected or obtained in the future. It helps to take the necessary management steps: plan resource needs, improve efficiency, increase profits, reduce costs, and adapt to changes in the market