Features of the Structure of Age-related Expenses in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Changes in the demographic structure of the population (aging of the population) can directly or indirectly lead to the transformation of key socio-economic indicators. This may affect the structure of revenues and expenditures of the state budget, as well as be reflected in some sectors of the economy. In the foreign literature, a significant number of studies are devoted to the study of the influence of the age structure of the population on the economic indicators of the country. However, in Russia this problem is poorly understood. The age composition of the population also affects the characteristics of socio-economic policy. Population growth in the most productive ages leads to an increase in per capita income, while in the least productive ages to a decrease in per capita income [18]. The greatest growth in the working-age population in the literature is usually defined as the first demographic dividend that was overcome for most developed countries. Currently, developed countries are at a stage when there is a significant increase in the burden of older people. However, according to scientists, in these conditions, an effective policy in the field of income and expenditure management can support the country’s economic growth. This effect is usually called the second demographic dividend. However, in the case of insufficient consumption at older ages, a decrease in total consumption can be observed, and, as a consequence, a decrease in output. Thus, in Russia there is a tendency towards aging of the population and low consumption in older ages.The purpose of the study is to construct an age profile of population expenditures, as well as to analyze the age structure of population expenditures based on data from the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics.Materials and methods. In order to construct age profiles of household expenditures and then analyze the age structure of household expenditures, we considered surveys of the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health, conducted by the Higher School of Economics from 2010 to 2018. Before constructing age profiles of population expenditures, a primary statistical analysis of the databases was carried out and anomalous observations were excluded. The obtained age profiles were smoothed using the Friedman method. It is important to note that population expenditure surveys are collected on a per household basis and not per family member. Thus, before constructing age profiles of household expenditures, it is necessary to reallocate household expenditures for each family member. The paper examines the features of the methods of redistribution of expenditures of the population. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, the recommendations of the National Intergenerational Transfer Accounts project developed by Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason will be used. Data processing was performed in the IBM SPSS and R software package.Results. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, there is  an  increase  in  expenditures  in  age groups  over  50  in 2018 compared to 2010. Conclusions are drawn about changes in expenditures on food, durable goods, services, utilities, and health services. The share of expenses for food products ranges from 38.6% to 43.7%. The smallest share of spending on food is observed in the ages from 0 to 9 years (less than 40%). In other age groups, the share of spending on food has no significant fluctuations and is about 42%. The largest share of spending on durable goods falls on the age groups from 0 to 19 years (about 17%). After 20 years, there is a gradual decrease in the share of spending on durable goods (to 6.6% in the age group 75-59). In terms of service category, the largest share of expenses falls on age groups 50-54 (18%). In the age groups over 55 years old, the share of expenditures on services decreases (to 10.7% in the age group 75-59 years old). The expenditures for the category of utilities in the age groups from 0 to 49 years do not change, and then there is a gradual increase in the share of expenses. There is a high proportion of spending on health services in the age groups from 0 to 4 and in the age groups over 60. The results obtained are necessary when constructing forecast values for assessing macroeconomic indicators, planning the state budget.Conclusion. The article provides a review of foreign and Russian literature on assessing the impact of the age structure of the population on economic growth, calculates the age profile of household expenditures in the Russian Federation, and considers the age structure of household expenditures for 2010 and 2018 by five-year age intervals. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions about the different structure of population expenditures depending on age groups.