A hidden Markov regime-switching smooth transition model

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we develop a new class of parametric nonlinear time series models by combining two important classes of models, namely smooth transition models and hidden Markov regime-switching models. The class of models is general and flexible enough to incorporate two types of switching behavior: smooth state transitions and abrupt changes in hidden states. The estimation of the hidden states and model parameters is performed by applying filtering theory and a filter-based expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Applications of the model are illustrated using simulated data and real financial data. Other potential applications are mentioned.