Advancing polar motion prediction with derivative information

Abstract

Abstract Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) are essential for monitoring Earth’s rotational irregularities, impacting satellite navigation, space exploration, and climate forecasting. This study introduces a hybrid prediction model combining least-squares (LS) and vector autoregression (VAR) to improve Earth’s Pole Coordinates (x, y) forecast accuracy. Using daily sampled IERS EOP 20 C04 data from 2013 to 2023, we conducted 1,000 yearly random trials, performing 48 forecasts per year. Our method evaluates six data combinations, including primary variables (x, y) and their derivatives ( x ̇ , y ̇ $\dot{x},\dot{y}$ ). Results show a systematic improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for ultra-short-term forecasts (10 days into future), with derivative information stabilizing the solutions. The best-performing combination ( x , y , x ̇ , y ̇ $x,y,\dot{x},\dot{y}$ ) achieved a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) reduction (with respect to the reference data combination – x, y) of up to 8 % for the y and 7 % for the x over a whole 30-day forecast horizon. These findings highlight the effectiveness of incorporating derivatives of polar motion time series into prediction procedure.