The statehood of Eurasia’s de facto states: an empirical model of engagement by great powers and patrons

Abstract

The article designs an empirical model to compare the level of engagement of de facto states in Eurasia by three great powers and non-great power patron states. The authors build diagrams based on three variables – military, political, and economic – whose indicators are determined by an expert survey. Russia engages the most de facto states and to the greatest degree, while the US falls behind since engaging the de facto states is not a key national security concern. However, neither holds a universal principle of engaging de facto states – each case is treated based on broader political and national security considerations. China, wary of domestic separatism, has no military ties with the de facto states and limited economic and political engagement. Taiwan scores the highest among the de facto states with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Abkhazia falling behind by a large margin. The Peoples’ Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and Transnistria score the lowest. The study reveals, the degree of engagement matters more than the number of the UN member states formally recognizing a de facto state.