The Influence of China and the United States on the Secession of Taiwan in 2016–2024: Quantification of Factors of Involvement

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of relations in the China-Taiwan-USA triangle, from the point of view of the theory of the multidirectional development of two aspects of statehood under the secession of the island: status and stateness. The authors give an answer to the question of what pressure US and China provide on the status and solvency of Taiwan in 2016–2022, analyzing military, political, economic and demographic factors through their qualitative analysis and quantification. Military variables include the facts of the flag demonstration on the territory of Taiwan and the supply of weapons, economic variables include the volume of imports and exports, trade in goods strategically important for the island’s economy, the volume of FDI, passenger and sea traffic, and the number of flights. The visits of officials, the recognition of Taiwanese documents are political variables, as well as the specifics of political communication – this meant the characteristics of unofficial contacts between Beijing and Washington with the island in a particular year. Among the variables of human capital, the number of Taiwanese students studying on the mainland and in the United States and the number of passport holders stand out. Since the authors are interested in the dynamics of Taiwan’s relations with the United States and China, static indicators were not included in the object of analysis: the presence of embassies, deterministic legal recognition. Within the framework of the work, a comprehensive approach is presented, simultaneously considering Taiwan’s involvement in relations with the United States and China. According to the results of the analysis, it is recorded that Beijing exerts the greatest pressure on the state solvency and status of the island in terms of economic and demographic aspects of interaction. In turn, the United States supports Taipei on the political and military trade track. It is predicted that China will not reintegrate Taiwan militarily in the absence of escalation by the island or the United States (unilateral recognition of independence). The Chinese strategy assumes the smooth involvement of Taiwan with economic, international-political, infrastructural instruments, the reaction to Nancy Pelosi’s visit does not mean weakness of the leadership. In addition, the Chinese foreign policy and military culture does not imply drastic actions.