Determining the fire season by analyzing climatic conditions in northeastern Serbia

Abstract

The territory of Serbia is sensitive to forest fires, which endanger various systems and play an important role in shaping the ecosystem. The probability of the occurrence and spread of forest fires in the area of northeastern Serbia was examined, depending on the influence of climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions are investigated at the annual and monthly level of air temperature, precipitation and air humidity values recorded at three main meteorological stations (Zaječar, Negotin, Crni Vrh) in the area of northeastern Serbia. Changes in climatic conditions in the period 2009-2022 compared to the period 1961-1990 were analyzed, with an emphasis on 2012 and 2014. The length of the average fire season was determined through a modified version of Thornthwaite’s evapotranspiration index. The fire season is longer in the area of Negotin and Zaječar than in the area of Crni Vrh. On the basis of the monthly humidity indices, a significantly longer fire season was determined in 2012 compared to 2014, as well as the multi-year period 1961-1990.An analysis of the value of the Burning Index (B) for the period 2009-2022 was performed and a correlation was established with the data on the number of forest fires. The burning index in the area of northeastern Serbia is the highest during the months of July, August and September. Significantly higher values of the burning index are for 2012 compared to 2014, which is correlated with the occurrence of forest fires in this period.