Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate

Author:

Roberts Michael J1,Schlenker Wolfram2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Box 8109, Raleigh, NC 27695.

2. School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, 420 W 118th St., New York, NY 10027, and NBER.

Abstract

We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent. (JEL Q11, Q16, Q42, Q48)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

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